The consequences of the U.S. and Israeli decision to attack Iran are now cascading across the global economy at a pace that few predicted. Roughly 20% of the world’s oil supplies have been effectively blocked from transiting the Strait of Hormuz since Iran began attacking ships in retaliation, sending oil prices surging to levels not seen in years. As defense analyst Jack Watling wrote in The Guardian, the Hormuz blockade is Iran’s “most powerful card” — and Tehran has no intention of folding anytime soon.
“Militarily, while the United States has the firepower to significantly reduce Iran’s capacity to use the strait as leverage, it is unlikely to be able to eliminate the threat entirely,” Watling argues. Reopening the strait, he notes, “is not only a question of military capabilities but of diplomacy.”