The ceasefire between the United States and Iran is holding — but just barely. As of April 9, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei declared victory over both the US and Israel, even as the death toll from strikes surpassed 300. The Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil chokepoints, remains closed, and Australia has signaled it could assist in efforts to reopen the waterway.
The conflict, which erupted on February 28, has already reshaped the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. While the guns have gone quiet for now, the information available to markets and diplomats remains, in the words of one analyst, “somewhat vague or prone to confusion.” The fog of war has given way to a fog of peace — and no one is quite sure what comes next.
