The numbers are staggering. According to the World Bank’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook released on April 29, the U.S.–Israeli war on Iran has removed roughly 10 million barrels per day from global supply — the single largest energy supply disruption ever documented. Attacks on energy infrastructure and shipping through the critical Strait of Hormuz have choked off a waterway responsible for roughly a fifth of the world’s oil trade.
The consequences are cascading rapidly. The World Bank projects energy prices will jump 24% this year, reaching their highest levels since 2022, while broader commodity costs are also set to climb sharply. The bank warns that the shock will push inflation higher and slow economic growth worldwide — a grim prognosis for economies still recovering from the post-pandemic inflation cycle.
In the United States, the effects are already being felt at the pump. As The New York Times reported, crude oil prices have hit fresh highs since the start of the conflict, with U.S. gas prices continuing their upward trajectory as Middle Eastern energy supplies remain disrupted.
