A hard-won ceasefire in Lebanon is under severe strain after Israel expanded its strikes across the country, while Iran moved once again to close the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world’s most strategically vital waterways. The White House demanded the channel be reopened and sought to keep fragile peace talks on track, according to The Hindu.
The situation is a dramatic escalation just days after the United States and Iran reportedly reached a ceasefire agreement on April 7. That deal was supposed to represent a turning point in the regional crisis, but events on the ground are rapidly outpacing diplomacy.
Adding a troubling wrinkle to the story: newly created accounts on the prediction market Polymarket made “highly specific, well-timed bets” on whether a US-Iran ceasefire would be struck on April 7, according to the Associated Press. The accounts raked in hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits, raising uncomfortable questions about who had advance knowledge of the deal — and whether prediction markets are becoming a vehicle for insider information.
